EARTH'S POPULATION - ENOUGH ROOM?:
EARTH'S POPULATION - ENOUGH ROOM?:
I remember as a young actuary, circ 1960, studying demographics for the actuarial examinations. It was a required examination subject. I was one of the few people at the time that was facile with computer, which were large mainframe type calculating machines. In any event, in good fashion I projected the earth's population to max out in 2050 at about 8 billion folks. My model was reasonably sophifisticated considering the state of computer technology. I factored in fertility rates by region of the world, and expectations of economic growth patterns that might slow down the fertility rates, as well as morbidity and mortality trends.
The current estimates by the UN show the median estimate to be about 9 billion in 2050 and slightly declining after that. See the following link to wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population .
Of course, the advances in technology that are upon us will change the paradigm. Ray Kurzweil argues very powerfully in the "The Singularity is Near," that people may have the opportunity to "live forever." And I for one, believe Ray Kurzweil is on the money. see also: Predictions Made by Ray Kurzweil.
If population explodes, and life gets crowded here on earth, others have found clever ways to use space efficiently. Watch the folowing scenario: CONTINUE:
Here are four additional links to Ray Kurzweil. Kurzweil defends advances in Artificial Intelligence. The subject of AI is a lightning rod and a joke for critics of AI. particularly from neuroscientists who are overwhelmed by the increasing complexity of the brain. The criticism results from a lack of understanding of AI and is discussed elsewhere in this blog [insert link].
Here are four good links for videos on Kurzweil:
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11558
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/672
http://www.charlierose.com/view/clip/11547
http://www.charlierose.com/guest/view/800
The following video makes two essential points:
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