A New Stock Market Consensus Is Brewing

Jim Cramer on the Market: A New Stock Market Consensus Is Brewing


The Street
3 hrs ago

NEW YORK (Real Money) -- A new consensus is brewing: We moved up too high in 2013 vs. what is on the ground this year, and the consensus is making sense to a lot of people.

You have to think about last year at this time.

We thought that Europe was getting better, not worse. We had ample reason to think that because rates had come down and we were starting to get very good numbers from countries aside from Germany.

We figured that with Europe getting better, the export market for China would be stronger, allowing the Chinese to meet or exceed growth targets.

We thought that the Middle East wouldn't require a level of attention and frustration that threatens to upend a not-so-hot status quo to begin with.

We didn't see the political weaknesses starting to come in to play in Latin America, which can be so devastating and toxic to trade (see Ford Motor's  numbers if you don't get that).

We didn't see Russia becoming an out-and-out enemy and its country becoming a trade partner that you want to do less with, not more.

We didn't see that the end of rancor in Washington would mean nothing anyway, and we are all on our own with the only aspect of Washington caring about business being the Federal Reserve.

We didn't foresee Ebola breaking out at the level that it has. We all know, except the government, that is, that you can't control the disease anymore without some strict immigration policies, something our government is way too politically correct to ever put into place until disaster really strikes.

We didn't see the U.S. dollar soaring and soaring quickly, too quickly for any of our international companies to adjust. Despite this, domestic companies are doing quite well.

We have lots to cheer about. But so many of our larger-cap companies are involved with overseas business, and it is unlikely that these businesses will improve.

Put simply, many stocks, while they have come down a great deal, still don't have support. Many stocks can roll over simply to keep up with the others that have already rolled over.

When we get there, the beginning of the year on the charts will look like a massive head with ourselves on the right shoulder.

It isn't an ideal time, yet. We have to give back the optimism that moved stocks higher in the way that we have given back the optimism in business.

And when that is done and we get the politicians to clean up their acts and make progress, we will, again, make progress, too.

Brophy Thursday 09 October 2014 - 5:17 pm | | Brophy Blog

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